Money Authority of Singapore (MAS) has issued the latest offering for Singapore Savings Bond SSB Oct 2023 (SBOCT23 GX23100T): First-year rate at 3.05% and a 10-year average return of 3.16%. These rates are higher than last month’s September offering of ‘just’ 3.01% for the first year and 3.06% for the average 10-year return.
This month’s offering is quite attractive as we are firmly above the 3% mark again. Yay! Is SSB a good option for fixed-income investors?
Key Takeaways
- The SSB Oct 2023 offers even higher interest rates than September’s. The first year is 3.05%, and the 10-year average return is 3.16%. We think this is quite an attractive option for income-seeking investors. With the market expecting the interest rates to start reversing next year, this could be your chance to lock in the higher rates for the next ten years!
- This October offering has a higher total offering amount of $800 million. This is a rather significant bump from last month’s $600 million. If you have older SSBs yielding much lower than 3.16%, you can consider recycling them into this month’s SSB.
- Because our yield curve is inverted, short-term interest rates are higher than longer-term interest rates. If you want to park your cash in the short term, you may consider the Singapore T-bill, which offers a much higher yield. The last auction’s yield was 3.7% for the 6-month T-bills.
SSB Oct 2023 Offering in Details
This SSB October 2023 offering is one of the highest in recent times. It is quite an attractive proposition, with the whole ten years above 3%. It is also a step up from the September offering, which only offers a 10-year average of 3.06%.
If you are looking for an almost risk-free fixed-income investment, this month’s SSB offering can be one of your main contenders. Here is the application timeline if you are interested in applying:
Please make sure to apply before 26 Sep 2023. You can use any local bank’s online banking for an easy application process. We have written a step-by-step guide on how to buy SSB.
Who Should Invest in SSB?
Singapore Savings Bonds (SSB) appeal to a specific group of investors: those seeking capital preservation with a preference towards liquidity. The main benefit of SSB is its flexibility to withdraw at any month without penalty. You even earn the accrued interest.
SSB is a type of Singapore government bond, and therefore, your bond is guaranteed by the credit of the Singapore government. It is as risk-free as you can get in the market. Singapore is one of the few countries with the highest AAA credit rating from all major credit rating agencies.
Good Time to Invest in SSB?
How attractive is the current offering? Is now the right time to invest in SSB? Let’s dive deeper.
Current vs. Historical Offerings
Here is the summary of the SSB interest rates history:
The chart shows that the current SSB Oct 2023 offering is relatively high if we compare it historically. Even if we look at just one year ago, the rate was still at ~1.5%. This month’s offering is one of the highest in recent years.
Future Interest Rate Expectations
If today’s offering is already one of the highest in recent years, it doesn’t mean the rate won’t keep going up, right? Well, nobody knows for sure, but let’s look at the market expectation to get a rough guideline on where the interest rate is heading:
The current benchmark interest rate is at 5.25-5.50%. We can see from the table that the market expects the rate to stay at this level for a few months before reversing down towards the middle of next year. The market expects the end-of-the-year rate to be around 4.25-4.50%.
How about the Fed’s projection? From their last FOMC meeting, the Fed expects only one more rate hike this year before pivoting next year.
Whether we get one or two more rate hikes, it does seem like we are reaching the tail-end of this rate hike cycle. If you agree with this projection, today may be an excellent time to lock in the higher interest rate for ten years before it starts reversing next year.
Recycle Older SSBs
We have seen relatively low demand for SSB in the past several months. However, last month’s offering was almost fully subscribed. With this SSB Oct 2023 offering an even higher rate, the demand may continue to increase this month. The good news is that the total offering amount is higher, up to $800 million. Maybe this is in anticipation of the higher demand from the higher interest rates.
If you have older SSBs yielding much lower than 3.16%, you may consider recycling them into this month’s SSB to lock in the higher rates.
Inverted Yield Curve
Although SSB is a long-term 10-year government bond, many investors use it to park their cash for the short term due to its flexibility to redeem every month. Are there other alternatives out there for parking short-term cash?
Because our yield curve is inverted, our short-term interest rates are higher than the long-term interest rates. Investors who want to park cash for the short term may consider investing in T-bills, fixed deposits, or high-yield savings accounts. The last auction for the 6-month T-bill resulted in a cut-off yield of 3.70%, significantly higher than the current SSB rates. High-yield savings accounts also offer rates above 4.00% (if you can fulfill their criteria).
Additionally, investors may consider combining SSB and T-bills to enjoy higher short-term interest rates while still locking in the relatively higher long-term rates from SSB.
What Would We Do?
We are interested in recycling a small portion of our SSBs into this month’s offering to lock in the higher rates. We also use a combination of T-bills and high-yield savings accounts to park our short-term cash.
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The latest SSB yields 10-yr avg of 3.16%.
The first year rate is 3.05%.
3.16% is quite attractive, yay! and the amount offered is higher at $800 million. May also consider recycling older SSBs (if you have any).
If you are interested, do apply before 26 Sep 2023. pic.twitter.com/OkfhwDmvUz
— wealthfor.us (@wealthfor_us) September 5, 2023
