We have gotten the auction result for T-bill 26 Dec 2023 (BS23125H), and the cut-off yield was 3.73%. This yield is just a slight decline from the previous auction of 3.74%. We are pretty satisfied with this auction result, as the yield stayed steady despite the trend of declining rates.
Auction Result
Allotment Result
| Total Amount Allotted | S$5.6 billion |
| Amount Allotted to Non-Competitive Applications | S$2.2 billion |
| Total Amount Applied | S$12.8 billion |
| % of Competitive Applications at Cut-off Allotted | Approximately 90% |
| % of Non-Competitive Applications Allotted | 100% |
| Bid-to-Cover Ratio | 2.29 |
Yield and Price
| Cut-off Yield | 3.73% p.a. |
| Cut-off Price | 98.14 |
| Median Yield | 3.58% p.a. |
| Median Price | 98.215 |
| Average Yield | 2.94% p.a. |
| Average Price | 98.534 |
Declining Yield and Demand
We saw a lower yield of 3.73% in this T-bill BS23125H. Despite the decline, this level aligns with what we have been getting in the past several auctions. T-bill yields have been stable this year, hovering between 3.65% and slightly above 4%. Overall, the result of this latest T-bill BS23125H auction was in line with our expectations.
Demand remained strong, though we saw lower demand in this auction. The total amount applied was $12.8 billion, down from $13.3 billion in the previous auction. We saw a drop in both the competitive and non-competitive bids in this auction. This presents good news to non-competitive bidders because they were able to get 100% allocation for their whole bid amount. Congratulations to those who managed to secure their allocation this round.
The non-competitive bid amount was still relatively high for our liking, hovering dangerously close to the allocation limit. In light of this, we will continue to place competitive bids for the time being and keep an eye on the non-competitive demand in the upcoming auctions.
What Would We Do?
Looking at Interest Rates Projection
We believe that we may be reaching the tail-end of this rate hike cycle. In its latest FOMC meeting, the Fed projected no further rate hikes and would begin to pivot next year. They expected three rate cuts in 2024. The market also expects the interest rate to have peaked and will start to reverse next year. It even expects six rate cuts next year!
If you agree with this sentiment, this may be the time to rethink your strategy going forward. With the expectation that interest rates will start to decline next year, we may not be able to get the same yield in six months when the T-bills mature. Will you be okay with the potentially lower yield when you need to reinvest in the future? Otherwise, you may want to consider alternatives that suit your investing objective.
T-Bill Alternatives
We like T-bill because of its high yield and lowest risk profile. We currently utilize T-bills to park our short-term cash. However, with the expectation that interest rates may decline next year, we begin to diversify our allocation into other instruments to lock in the higher yield for longer. Generally, we think rates may not fall as fast as the market thinks, so we can gradually migrate our T-bill allocation to the alternatives.
Let’s look at some T-bill alternatives and see if they suit you.
Fixed Deposits
Singapore fixed deposits have not offered competitive rates this year. However, what fixed deposits can offer is flexibility in their maturity. Unlike with T-bills, you are not limited to just six months of maturity. If you want to lock in relatively higher rates for longer, you can place the fixed deposit for 12 or 24 months. For those who prefer a shorter timeframe, you can place fixed deposits for 1 to 3 months.
Alternatively, you may also consider Syfe Cash+ Guaranteed, which currently offers up to 4% guaranteed interest rate. Syfe Cash+ Guaranteed invests in institutional fixed deposits, allowing for more competitive rates than retail fixed deposits.
Singapore Savings Bond (SSB)
Although SSB is a long-term 10-year bond, you can use SSB for your short-term allocation. SSB allows monthly redemption (partial or in full) without any penalty while still earning the accrued interest. SSB is even more liquid than T-bills. If you believe the interest rates may start to reverse soon, SSB can be an option to lock in the higher rates for longer. You can lock the rates for the next ten years, guaranteed!
We have been doing this recently, moving some of our T-bills allocations into SSB to benefit from the higher rates for longer. If you are interested in applying for the next SSB, you may refer to our guide on how to buy SSB.
Cash Management Accounts
Cash management accounts offer competitive rates because of the high short-term interest rate. With these cash management accounts, you trade the guaranteed rates with higher liquidity.
We have been a fan of cash management accounts for most of this year but have since started to migrate away into SSB. The reasoning is similar: should the interest rate decline, the floating rates offered by these cash management accounts will be the first to fall.
Higher-Risk Alternatives
Lower interest rates usually correlate with a ‘risk-on’ economic environment. Higher-growth assets like stocks or REITs tend to perform well in this ‘risk-on’ environment. If these alternatives suit your risk profile and investing objectives, you may consider looking into these assets to capitalize on their future potential growth.
If you are interested in Singapore REITs, you may look at our list of Singapore REITs data. Alternatively, you can also get diversified exposure to the Singapore REITs sector by investing in the Singapore REIT ETFs.
So, will you be applying for the next T-bill auction? If yes, you may follow our guide on how to buy T-bills.
If you plan on investing in T-bills using CPF, you can estimate the additional interest you may earn with our CPF T-bill calculator.
