AI Revolution: What Does It Mean for Investors?

AI Revolution

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the talk of the town nowadays. AI can generate amazing art, write blog posts, drive a car, produce functioning codes, design websites, etc. AI has advanced so much that people expect it to replace our jobs soon. If you have been using these AI tools, you may be impressed with what they can produce. Is AI revolution upon us?

 

Is this an AI Revolution?

Industrial, Digital, and AI Revolution

From the business definition, a revolution is a fundamental (can be sudden) technological, cultural, and socioeconomic change that transforms the nature of economic growth. Let’s observe these characteristics from the previous revolutions.

The Industrial Revolution

A revolution was started in the late 1700 and early 1800: from an agricultural society into one dominated by machinery and manufacturing. This change marked a fundamental shift in how society functions at that time. Many jobs were lost, and new jobs were created. What was valuable before became less valuable. This is the early stage of the industrial revolution. The life that we enjoy today is the byproduct of the industrial revolution. Furthermore, we are still advancing this revolution by making our industries more efficient through technology and automation.

The Digital Revolution

Toward the late 1900 and early 2000, another revolution took place. This time it was the digital revolution. The invention of the computer and the internet drastically changed how society functions. Global communication suddenly became possible. Internet businesses dominated the world. Even today, many of the largest companies in the world are internet-enabled technology companies. Thanks to the digital revolution, you can easily read this article from anywhere in the world.

The AI Revolution?

So, is this an AI revolution that we are witnessing? Or is this just hype that will fade over time?

In 2021-2022, we witnessed the birth of the metaverse narrative. Many companies embraced this initiative by investing billions of dollars into this emerging industry. Even Facebook changed its name to Meta to reflect its new focus. Fast forward to 2023, the metaverse looks more like a ‘meh’-taverse. But honestly, it is too early to tell because the technology does not yet seem ready for the metaverse to gain traction. This may change as technology advances in the future.

How about AI? Is it ready for prime time? We want you to be the judge by trying out yourself. We have used many AI tools and were very impressed with the result. They can produce results comparable (or even better) than human professionals. Bonus point: at a much faster rate without the need to sleep. Some jobs have started to be replaced by AI, such as content writers and graphic designers. If this rate of innovation continues, AI will likely replace more jobs in the future.

For AI to become a revolution, it needs to be able to make a fundamental change in the nature of economic growth. It needs to transform the way the society functions. What do you think? We could be witnessing the birth of the AI revolution. The technology seems to be reaching its prime time, and the rate of innovation has been impressive so far. Time will tell, and that time could be coming soon.

 

The Implication of the AI Revolution on Businesses

If AI is a revolution, disruption will impact businesses across industries. The best companies during the agricultural era were disrupted when the industrial revolution took place. The same will likely happen with the AI revolution. It will disrupt all businesses regardless of industries or geography.

Adapt or Die

It is sad to say, but many businesses will likely die due to the AI revolution. But at the same time, many new companies will rise and dominate the industry. The advice is simple: adapt or die. The outcome of a successful revolution is likely a net positive for the economy. Still, the process may not be smooth and may cause many uncertainties. There will be more and more competition from smaller startups that can disrupt even the most prominent businesses. The start of a revolution is a unique time for the industry.

 

What Does It Mean for Investors?

First of all, ask yourself whether you believe in the AI revolution. Your stance will dictate what you want to do as investors. There is no right or wrong yet. Maybe we’ll know the answer several years in the future. But as an investor, we generally want to be prepared and forward-looking.

AI is just hype

If you believe AI is just hype that will fade away, your stance should be defensive and not be too involved with companies that spend too many resources on AI. Once the hype fades away, those resources would have been wasted. Stick to your investment plan as it is, but still take note of the progress of AI innovation. If AI eventually becomes a revolution, you may want to adapt. A rational investor will adjust their portfolio if the thesis becomes invalid.

AI will revolutionize our life

On the other hand, if you believe AI can potentially be a revolution soon, you want to position yourself to benefit from this shift.

As with any revolution, the disruptors are usually the smaller startups that are agile and adaptable. The disrupted are the large corporations that are slow to adapt and innovate. Unfortunately, you need to be an accredited investor with a higher risk profile to access these smaller startups. However, as a retail investor, you can still position yourself in this emerging innovation by investing in larger businesses that enable AI via its infrastructure, that push the boundary of AI, or at least embrace AI.

Infrastructure

AI requires a lot of computing power. It needs to be constantly fed with a massive set of data to stay current. Learning the data and generating results require heavy computing power. One of the safer ways to bet on the AI revolution is to invest in companies that provide this essential infrastructure. Consider looking at companies that offer computing resources and hardware that power this AI. Some of the household names you can research further include Amazon (AWS and Bedrock), Google (GCP), Microsoft (Azure), and NVIDIA (hardware).

AI Players

Some tech companies are actively pushing the boundary of AI innovation. You may have heard about ChatGPT from OpenAI. Do you know who provides significant funding for OpenAI? It’s Microsoft. Microsoft has a massive investment in OpenAI and is primed to benefit should OpenAI succeed. Microsoft has also integrated GPT technology into its Bing search engine and productivity suites.

Who stands to lose the most if ChatGPT succeeds? It’s Google with its search engine. The good news is that Google has invested in AI for many years. As a direct response to ChatGPT, Google recently launched its Bard AI. Many other companies, such as Baidu, Alibaba, etc., also entered this space in 2023.

From the generative art segment, which company stands to lose the most? It’s Adobe. Their suite of design tools may become obsolete if AI eventually replaces graphics designers. Fortunately, Adobe is also at the forefront of AI generative art with its Adobe Firefly product.

How about self-driving AI? Tesla seems to be the leader.

More and more companies, especially in the SaaS space, will join this AI race or be disrupted.

There are many companies at the forefront of this AI innovation. If you really believe in the AI revolution, you can look further into these companies.

Be a Rational Investor

Even if you believe so much in the AI revolution, we would still like to emphasize the basic principle of investing. As a rational investor, you want to invest when the odds are in your favor. Refrain from blindly investing in companies; use proper valuation methodology to decide whether the companies you want to invest in are undervalued (or at least fairly valued) before investing. Use proper allocation to avoid over-investing in a specific segment. Nobody knows the future with certainty, so always be prepared to adapt should your thesis become invalid. Happy investing!

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Disclaimer: The information provided here is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other advice or recommendation of any sort.

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David Ang

About David Ang

A long-term investor with a portfolio across the United States and Asian equities, REITs, commodities, and fixed incomes. After over a decade of hands-on investing (and making countless mistakes), I'm excited to use this platform to share what I've learned over the years. And let's continue to learn together. Writing about macro economy, equities, personal finance, web3. Follow me on Twitter: @danggaku