The latest T-bill 25 July 2023 (BS23114A) auction concluded with a cut-off yield of 3.85%. This lower yield likely disappoints investors because we have seen a steady rise in recent auctions. The last auction yield was still 3.99%. Let’s look at the summary of this auction:
Lower T-bill Yield
This T-bill 25 July 2023 (BS23114A) yield is only 3.85%, down from last issuance of 3.99%. This much lower yield may catch some investors by surprise. What could be driving this lower yield?
With the Fed expected to raise the rate just one more time this year, the market expects we are reaching the tail-end of this rate hike cycle. The market expects the interest rate to stay around the same level six months from now. As a result, we are unlikely to see yields much higher than those seen in previous auctions. The US Treasury also slightly dipped as compared to 2 weeks ago.
High Demand For T-bill
The demand for this auction was high! We saw a total application of $12.2 billion for this auction.
We last saw this high demand back in May 2023. This higher demand may be attributed to the lack of alternatives and the realization that the higher yield may not last much longer. Investors seeking safe and stable returns may want to start locking in this higher T-bill yield before the interest rates reverse next year.
With a jump in demand, it is not a surprise for the yield to dip slightly. This much higher demand could be one of the reasons why the yield dropped in this T-bill 25 July 2023 (BS23114A) auction.
Competitive and Non-competitive Bids
The jump in demand can be attributed to the competitive bids, which jumped from $8.1 billion to $10 billion. The non-competitive bids stayed the same at $2.2 billion.
In the last auction, we saw non-competitive bids jump the most, to the point where non-competitive bid investors did not get their full allocation. Learning from the previous auction, most investors likely bid competitively to ensure they get their desired allocation. Most retail investors who wanted full allocation while using competitive bids likely bid on the lower side, thus further lowering the cut-off yield.
This auction offers a slightly larger total offering size of $5.6 billion (up from $5.4 billion). With total non-competitive bids at $2.2 billion, the good news is that non-competitive bidders got the full allocation this time, yay!
But please note that the 40% allocation for non-competitive bids was reached in this auction. Non-competitive investors will no longer receive their full allocation if the non-competitive bid amount is even slightly higher.
We recommend investors who want to receive their full allocation use competitive bids in the upcoming auctions.
T-bill Alternatives
Despite the recent fall in yield, 3.85% is still reasonably attractive historically. The current yield remains among the highest in recent times. Compared with other alternatives, T-bills remain attractive for investors seeking fixed-income returns.
Fixed deposits in Singapore have steadily declined, with the highest interest only at 3.5%. High-yield savings and cash management accounts can yield slightly more than 4%, but they come with some catches.
High-yield savings accounts often require hoops to jump through, such as crediting your salary and spending on a credit card. The interest rate is also floating, which means it may fall below the T-bill, which locks in the interest for six months.
Cash management accounts have a different risk profile because they offer no guarantee on your initial principal. The interest rate is also floating.
Although yields have fallen slightly, we still think T-bills are one of the better-yielding fixed-income instruments for investors seeking capital preservation. With interest rates possibly peaking soon, it may be a good idea to lock in higher rates now.
Are you interested in applying for the next T-bill auction? You can follow our step-by-step guide on how to buy T-bills.
