Latest T-bill 25 July 2023 (BS23114A) Yield Fell to 3.85%

The latest T-bill 25 July 2023 (BS23114A) auction concluded with a cut-off yield of 3.85%. This lower yield likely disappoints investors because we have seen a steady rise in recent auctions. The last auction yield was still 3.99%. Let’s look at the summary of this auction:

T-bill 25 July 2023 (BS23114A) auction summary


Lower T-bill Yield

This T-bill 25 July 2023 (BS23114A) yield is only 3.85%, down from last issuance of 3.99%. This much lower yield may catch some investors by surprise. What could be driving this lower yield?

T-bill 25 July 2023 (BS23114A) yield historical chart
Although this latest auction saw a dip in the cut-off yield, historically, the current yield is still one of the highest in recent times. Source: Singapore T-bill Interest Rates.

With the Fed expected to raise the rate just one more time this year, the market expects we are reaching the tail-end of this rate hike cycle. The market expects the interest rate to stay around the same level six months from now. As a result, we are unlikely to see yields much higher than those seen in previous auctions. The US treasury also slightly dipped as compared to 2 weeks ago.


High Demand For T-bill

The demand for this auction was high! We saw a total application of $12.2 billion for this auction.

T-bill 25 July 2023 (BS23114A) demand chart

We last saw this high demand back in May 2023. This higher demand may be attributed to the lack of alternatives and the realization that the higher yield may not last much longer. Investors seeking safe and stable returns may want to start locking in this higher T-bill yield before the interest rates reverse next year.

With a jump in demand, it is not a surprise for the yield to dip slightly. This much higher demand could be one of the reasons why the yield dropped in this T-bill 25 July 2023 (BS23114A) auction.

Competitive and Non-competitive Bids

The jump in demand can be attributed to the competitive bids, which jumped from $8.1 billion to $10 billion. The non-competitive bids stayed the same at $2.2 billion.

In the last auction, we saw non-competitive bids jump the most to the point where non-competitive bid investors did not get their full allocation. Learning from the previous auction, most investors likely bid competitively to ensure they get their desired allocation. Most retail investors who wanted full allocation while using competitive bids likely bid on the lower side, thus further lowering the cut-off yield.

This auction offers a slightly larger total offering size of $5.6 billion (up from $5.4 billion). With the total amount of non-competitive bids staying at $ 2.2 billion, the good news is that non-competitive bidders got the full allocation this time, yay!

But please be aware that the allocation of 40% for non-competitive bids was reached in this auction! Non-competitive investors will no longer receive their full allocation if the non-competitive bid amount is even slightly higher.

We recommend investors who want to receive their full allocation use competitive bids in the upcoming auctions.


T-bill Alternatives

Despite the recent fall in the yield, 3.85% is still reasonably attractive if we compare it historically. The current yield is still one of the highest in recent times. If we compare the T-bill yield to other alternatives, we can also say that T-bill is still attractive for investors looking for fixed-income investments.

Fixed deposits in Singapore have steadily declined, with the highest interest only at 3.5%. High-yield savings and cash management accounts can yield slightly higher than 4%, but they have some catches.

For savings accounts, there are many hoops that you need to fulfill, such as crediting your salary, spending credit card, etc. The interest rate is also floating, which means it may go down earlier than the T-bill, which locks the interest for six months.

Cash management accounts are of a different risk profile because there is no guarantee on your initial principal. The interest rate is also floating.

Although the yield has fallen slightly, we still think T-bill is one of the better-yielding fixed-income instruments for investors seeking capital preservation. With the interest rates possibly peaking soon, it may be a good idea to start locking in the higher rates now.

Are you interested in applying for the next T-bill auction? You may follow our step-by-step guide on how to buy T-bills.

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Disclaimer: The information provided here is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other advice or recommendation of any sort.

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David Ang

About David Ang

A long-term investor with a portfolio across the United States and Asian equities, REITs, commodities, and fixed incomes. After over a decade of hands-on investing (and making countless mistakes), I'm excited to use this platform to share what I've learned over the years. And let's continue to learn together. Writing about macro economy, equities, personal finance, web3. Follow me on Twitter: @danggaku