{"id":3028,"date":"2024-10-08T16:25:10","date_gmt":"2024-10-08T08:25:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wealthfor.us\/article\/?p=3028"},"modified":"2024-10-08T16:25:10","modified_gmt":"2024-10-08T08:25:10","slug":"chinese-stocks-soared-after-stimulus-plan-whats-happening","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wealthfor.us\/article\/chinese-stocks-soared-after-stimulus-plan-whats-happening\/","title":{"rendered":"Chinese Stocks Soared After Stimulus Plan: What\u2019s Happening?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hong Kong and Chinese stock markets soared recently after the Chinese government released an \u2018aggressive\u2019 stimulus plan that excited investors. After years of underperformance, the Chinese market finally showed a sign of a rebound. Should we look into the Chinese stock market now to ride the momentum?<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_3029\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3029\" style=\"width: 684px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-3029 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wealthfor.us\/article\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Hang-Seng-Index-1Y.png\" alt=\"Hang Seng Index 1Y\" width=\"684\" height=\"387\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.wealthfor.us\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Hang-Seng-Index-1Y.png 684w, https:\/\/cdn.wealthfor.us\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Hang-Seng-Index-1Y-300x170.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 684px) 100vw, 684px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-3029\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Hang Seng Index rallied hard, up ~15% in the past weeks, <i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">after the latest stimulus measures were introduced.<\/span><\/i><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>New China Stimulus Measures<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Chinese policymakers have finally introduced <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2024\/09\/24\/chinas-central-bank-chief-set-to-hold-press-conference-days-after-fed-rate-cut.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">a series of bold stimulus measures<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to reignite the economy. These include cutting interest rates, the banks\u2019 reserve requirement, the 7-day repo rate, the costs of existing mortgages, and the downpayment for a second home, as well as other fiscal stimuli to inject more liquidity into the economy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Many analysts believe this measure has a different tone than the earlier measures, which tend to be underwhelming.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The million-dollar question is whether the Chinese government&#8217;s implementation and follow-up on this stimulus plan will sufficiently boost the economy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>A New Bull Market?<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The government crackdown and the policy changes in the real estate sector introduced the multi-year bear market in the Chinese stock market in the past few years. This bear market taught investors one crucial lesson: the Chinese policymakers have a strong influence on the stock market. This is the risk that investors need to be comfortable with when investing in the HK\/China market.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Conversely, <em>policymakers can also have an outsized influence if they want to support their economy<\/em>. Investors are watching policymakers\u2019 moves to see if they are now \u2018serious\u2019 about stimulating the economy with their monetary policy and fiscal stimulus.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We think <strong>the market&#8217;s direction may depend on whether or not the government implements its stimulus measures as strongly as the market expected<\/strong>. We do not think monetary policy alone is sufficient to stimulate the structural decline in the Chinese economy, and <strong>a form of sustained \u2018big bang\u2019 fiscal stimulus is likely needed to ignite the economy\u2019s growth again<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So far, we know that cutting banks\u2019 reserves requirement will inject up to 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, but other fiscal numbers have yet to be released, so let\u2019s see how much fiscal injection we will see from the government this time.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That said, we have seen in the past that the details of the policies introduced by the policymakers have been underwhelming. Therefore, most past rallies have fizzled out as those measures were insufficient to lift the ailing economy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Will this time be different? Given the broad measures the policymakers introduced in one go, there is a good possibility this could be \u2018the one.\u2019 The market seems to agree with this sentiment by rallying hard with the introduction of these new stimulus measures.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Market Valuation<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The HK\/Chinese stock market has been depressed recently, and its valuation was low. But after the recent rally, is market valuation still attractive?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s examine the Hang Seng Index, which comprises some of the largest companies on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. As of this writing, the Hang Seng Index currently has a PE ratio of ~12.2x, slightly higher than its 10-year average of 11.8x. The index seems to have rallied enough to return to its average long-term valuation.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_3030\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3030\" style=\"width: 649px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3030\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wealthfor.us\/article\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Hang-Seng-Index-Historical-PE-Ratio.png\" alt=\"Hang Seng Index Historical PE Ratio\" width=\"649\" height=\"244\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.wealthfor.us\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Hang-Seng-Index-Historical-PE-Ratio.png 649w, https:\/\/cdn.wealthfor.us\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Hang-Seng-Index-Historical-PE-Ratio-300x113.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 649px) 100vw, 649px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-3030\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Historical PE Ratio of the Hang Seng Index. The long-term 10Y average is 11.8x, while the current level is 12.2x. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/simplywall.st\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">simplywall.st<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The chart shows that the index was below its long-term PE ratio average throughout 2022 and 2023 but has since reverted to its mean. From the PE ratio perspective, we can say that <em>the market is not cheap but also not expensive at the current level<\/em>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, please note that the PE ratio is a ratio of price divided by earnings, which means if earnings grow, the price will also increase even with the PE ratio staying the same. Because the company&#8217;s earnings have not been great recently due to the depressed economy, we can expect they will also start to grow as the economy recovers. So, <em>even if the index is fairly valued in terms of the PE ratio, it doesn\u2019t mean the index won\u2019t rise as the economy and company earnings grow<\/em>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For perspective, the Hang Seng Index currently stands at a level we already saw in 2007. That\u2019s more than 15 years of going nowhere. If the Chinese economy starts to recover well, the market may continue to rise in the years ahead.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_3031\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3031\" style=\"width: 677px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3031\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wealthfor.us\/article\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Hang-Seng-Index-Back-in-2007.png\" alt=\"Hang Seng Index Back in 2007\" width=\"677\" height=\"234\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.wealthfor.us\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Hang-Seng-Index-Back-in-2007.png 677w, https:\/\/cdn.wealthfor.us\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Hang-Seng-Index-Back-in-2007-300x104.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 677px) 100vw, 677px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-3031\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Even after the recent strong rally, the Hang Seng Index is still at a level we already saw in 2007.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>What Do We Do?<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We still believe that the Chinese economy will recover over the long term, regardless of whether or not this particular stimulus measure is \u2018the one.\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Over the past few years, we have accumulated positions in the Hong Kong stock market, where many of the largest Chinese companies are listed. <span class=\"OYPEnA font-feature-liga-off font-feature-clig-off font-feature-calt-off text-decoration-none text-strikethrough-none\">However, <\/span><span class=\"OYPEnA font-feature-liga-off font-feature-clig-off font-feature-calt-off text-decoration-none text-strikethrough-none\">due to the policy risk associated with investing in China, we keep our Chinese positions smaller to manage our risk<\/span><span class=\"OYPEnA font-feature-liga-off font-feature-clig-off font-feature-calt-off text-decoration-none text-strikethrough-none\">.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Given the recent strong rally, we are not rushing to add more positions to the HK\/China market. However, we might consider adding more positions should there be a decent pullback. Remember, the stock market does not go up in a straight line; there are ups and downs. A pullback in a bull market can be an excellent opportunity to add to our positions. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hong Kong and Chinese stock markets soared recently after the Chinese government released an \u2018aggressive\u2019 stimulus plan that excited investors. After years of underperformance, the Chinese market finally showed a sign of a rebound. Should we look into the Chinese stock market now to ride the momentum? &nbsp; New China Stimulus Measures Chinese policymakers have&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wealthfor.us\/article\/chinese-stocks-soared-after-stimulus-plan-whats-happening\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Chinese Stocks Soared After Stimulus Plan: What\u2019s Happening?<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3032,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3028","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Chinese Stocks Soared After Stimulus Plan: What\u2019s Happening? - WealthFor.Us<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"PBOC finally introduced stimulus measures that excited investors. 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After over a decade of hands-on investing (and making countless mistakes), I'm excited to use this platform to share what I've learned over the years. And let's continue to learn together. Writing about macro economy, equities, personal finance, web3. 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